10-20% Odds of AI Extinction Within 30 Years
'Godfather of AI' Puts Human Extinction at 10-20% by the 2050s
Asked if he still put the odds at one in 10: 'Not really, 10% to 20%.' His three-decade window closes around 2054.
What was claimed (paraphrase)
A '10% to 20%' chance that AI would lead to human extinction within the next three decades.
— Geoffrey Hinton (Nobel laureate, on BBC Radio 4's Today programme) · said Dec 2024 · due by about 2054 ('within the next three decades')
The most statistically hedged doom on file: by his own numbers, the likeliest outcome is that it doesn't happen.
The fine print
Reported by The Guardian (27 Dec 2024), headlined ''Godfather of AI' shortens odds of the technology wiping out humanity over next 30 years'. Asked on BBC Radio 4's Today whether he'd changed his estimate of a one-in-10 chance, Hinton said: 'Not really, 10% to 20%.' He said the technology was moving 'much faster' than expected and called for regulation. The end date is 30 years from the interview.