A Moderate U.S. Recession Beginning in the First Quarter of 2023
Fannie Mae, September 2022: Forecast Is 'a Moderate Recession Beginning in the First Quarter of 2023'
The mortgage giant's Economic and Strategic Research Group told markets for months that a modest recession would begin in Q1 2023. It then pushed the start date back.
What was said
“Inflation's entrenchment – and the policy action likely required of the Fed – confirms the expectation in our forecast of a moderate recession beginning in the first quarter of 2023.”
— Doug Duncan (Chief Economist, Fannie Mae) and the Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research Group · said Sep 2022 · due First quarter of 2023
No recession began in Q1 2023 or since. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.
The fine print
The October 2022 commentary repeated it: 'We still expect a modest recession to begin in the first quarter of 2023 as the full effects of tightening monetary policy and weaker global growth weigh on the economy.' The group later moved the expected start to later in 2023.
Sources
- Economic Indicators Continue to Point to Likely Recession in 2023 - Fannie Mae (September 2022)accessed 2026-10-09
- Growth Expected to Resume After a Mild Downturn in 2023 - Fannie Mae ESR forecast commentary (October 2022)accessed 2026-10-09
- US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions - National Bureau of Economic Researchaccessed 2026-10-09