A U.S. Recession Starting in Mid-2023
The Conference Board Forecasts a 'Recession Starting in Mid-2023'; the NBER Records No Recession
The business research group behind the Leading Economic Index forecast for months that a US recession was coming. In April 2023 it put the start at mid-year and cut its Q2 forecast to -1.8%.
What was said
“The Conference Board forecasts that economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the US economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023.”
— The Conference Board (US economics team; Economy Watch report by senior economist Erik Lundh) · said Apr 14, 2023 · due Mid-2023
No recession started in mid-2023. The NBER chronology has no business-cycle peak after February 2020.
The fine print
The same report: 'we are also downgrading our forecast for Q2 2023 from -0.9 percent to -1.8 percent. This is partially due to reverberations associated with the banking crisis.' In February the group's Ataman Ozyildirim had said 'the LEI continues to signal recession in the near term' (UPI).