The People's Republic Falls Within Ten Years
Gordon Chang, 2001: 'The People's Republic Has Five Years, Perhaps Ten, Before It Falls'
The Coming Collapse of China argued that joining the WTO would bring down the Communist Party within a decade. A decade later the party was still in charge and Chang wrote a sequel date.
What was said
“The People’s Republic has five years, perhaps ten, before it falls”
— Gordon G. Chang (lawyer and author, The Coming Collapse of China) · said 2001 · due Within five to ten years of 2001 (by 2011)
Ten years passed. Chang, December 2011: 'A decade has passed; the Communist Party is still in power.'
The fine print
From his 2001 book The Coming Collapse of China, as quoted by The Diplomat, which also quotes: 'The end of the modern Chinese state is near.' In Foreign Policy he restated the forecast: 'I predicted in my book. that the Communist Party would fall from power in a decade, in large measure because of the changes that accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) would cause.'
As of Oct 9, 2026
since it didn't happen
Put this counter on your site →